Os Preços dos Ingressos Para Um Classic Rock Megashow

Pricing Tickets for a Classic-Rock Megashow

Calculating ticket prices for a possible October megashow is a fraught, complex science

First of all thanks for Neil Shah at neil.shah@wsj.com for this article.

How much will fans pay to see the Rolling Stones, Bob Dylan, Paul McCartney and three other classic-rock giants at one festival? 

The three-night megashow, also featuring the Who, Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters and Neil Young, would be the first time the six acts have shared a bill. Goldenvoice, part of concert-promotion giant AEG Live, is planning the show for Oct. 7-9 at the Empire Polo Field in Indio, Calif. For more than 15 years, the venue has been home to the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, which caters to a younger audience with acts such as Calvin Harris, Drake and M83. 

The October festival, informally known as “Coachella for baby boomers,” isn’t a done deal. Negotiations with some artists were continuing last week, according to someone familiar with the matter. But the Who is definitely involved and the other acts are expected to confirm soon.

Demand among aging, affluent fans is expected to be high. According to bookings.com, 90% of Indio’s hotel rooms are reserved between Oct. 6 and 9.

Pricing tickets for a special event is a fraught, complex science. Hit the sweet spot and promoters stand to make millions of dollars. But miscalculating how much Boomers will pay to see historic acts of the 1960s and 1970s could mean dismal results or even losses. Artists such as the Stones and Paul McCartney don’t come cheap—and there are half-a-dozen acts, putting Goldenvoice at risk if fans don’t come. Another wild card is whether older followers are up for hanging out for three days in the dusty Southern California desert.

The Stones are arguably Goldenvoice’s biggest get. The average ticket price for the 54-year-old group, which had the 10th highest-grossing tour world-wide last year with just 14 shows, is roughly $175, according to Pollstar, a concert-industry publication. Paul McCartney is in the same ballpark, at $155. Tickets for last year’s Grateful Dead “Fare Thee Well” shows were $145 on average. By contrast, tickets for AC/DC, which topped the Coachella lineup last year, were $78 on average. Steely Dan, another Coachella 2015 headliner, fetched $105.

There appears to be an estimated 50% premium for classic-rock acts over Coachella headliners. If the just-completed Coachella charged $400 for a three-day general admission pass, “Coachella for Boomers” could ask $600 and up. 

Larry Miller, who heads the music-business program at New York University’s Steinhardt School, says it could be higher. Mr. Miller estimates Goldenvoice will pay a hefty $15 million to $18 million for its six acts. Producing the show would add another $10 million. All told, the company could require roughly $32 million to $35 million in ticket sales (not including income from merchandise, food and parking) to make a nice profit.

A big factor, given that many fans will be older, is how many tickets promoters decide to sell. Coachella’s capacity is nearly 100,000, but that’s across six stages active for much of the day and night. October’s classic-rock event will have two acts a day, one after the other, according to the Los Angeles Times, which reported the story earlier.

The audience for the October concert likely includes the parents of many Coachella-goers. Those fans probably wouldn’t want to be part of a crowd of 100,000, with protracted waits to enter and exit. An outdoor show of 40,000 makes more sense, Mr. Miller says. To hit $32 million to $35 million in revenue with 40,000 tickets, a weekend ticket would cost around $950, he estimates, without considering factors such as VIP packages. Individual-day tickets could be $385. The tickets could attract higher amounts on reselling sites. 

A lot depends on “framing” the pitch, says Pascal Courty, an economist at the University of Victoria, in British Columbia, who studies concert ticketing. Close to $1,000 for a weekend event and nearly $400 for a single day are big figures, but organizers “could get away with it [if] they can frame the value proposition in a way that makes the comparison with regular concerts difficult,” Professor Courty says. One way to justify higher prices, he says, is to make the event about more than music. There could be fine wine and food as well as art installations. Coachella this year featured Ferris-wheel rides, foodie fare such as sweet-potato tacos, a vinyl-record store and an installation by Cuban artist Alexandre Arrechea.

Fans already shell out big bucks for “legacy” acts such as the Stones. AC/DC raked in $180 million in revenue last year, making them the third-highest-grossing act, after One Direction and Taylor Swift. Coachella has been hosting more classic-rock acts, including Mr. McCartney and AC/DC. Guns N’ Roses stepped in this year, perhaps a sign of a shortage of younger headliners. 

Some Boomers could be put off by lofty ticket prices and sky-high VIP packages. One solution would be an affordable option, such as a one-day pass that doesn’t cost much more than seeing a couple of these acts in concert, ticketing experts say. 

Slavko Franca, a Rolling Stones superfan in his 60s, plans to fly to Indio in October from his home in Slovenia. He is betting on prices of more than $100 for a day pass—but he’d probably pay more.